Dan in CBS Moneywatch: Predicting Supreme Court rulings –with software
Supreme Court cases are always closely watched because they set precedence for the entire U.S. justice system. The sooner companies, lawyers and individuals know the court's ruling, the quicker they can adjust strategies.
Now it seems technology is ready to provide a helping hand. According to Daniel Katz, an associate professor of law at Michigan State University, computer modeling has proven "able to predict 70 to 75 percent of the cases correctly" in a given year. That compares to a 60 percent rating for legal experts who also predict outcomes.
"We take past performance of the individual justices as a whole and use that as a guidepost," Katz said in an interview with CBS MoneyWatch.
As Seen in Vox: This Computer Program Can Predict 7 Out of 10 Supreme Court Decisions
By now, political scientists have gotten pretty good at predicting the outcomes of national elections in the United States, especially presidential elections. The fact of the matter is that fundamentals-based modeling ahead of time and polls-based modeling as an election draws nearer result in very accurate predictions of how a given electoral season is going to shake out. No one can predict court cases with the same accuracy, yet, but Michigan State's Daniel Martin Katz has helped to build a model that comes close. Read the full article.
U.S. News & World Report: Forget Fantasy Football, Try Fantasy SCOTUS
Three law professors created a model they say can correctly predict 70 percent of Supreme Court decisions given only data known at the time of the case.
Now that they've honed their model, they want to know if man can beat machine. They set up a Fantasy SCOTUS league, which is free to join. Participants in Fantasy SCOTUS will predict all the cases in this term's Supreme Court docket, given the same information as the algorithm, and the winner will be declared at the end. The human with the most accurate predictions wins $10,000. Read the full article.
10 Predictions About How IBM’s Watson Will Impact the Legal Profession
Dan co-authors a column in ABA Journal's 'The New Normal':
In July, we talked about whether the change in law should be characterized as “Disruption, Eruption or Interruption?” This week, we drill down into one likely source of change, IBM’s Watson. Read the full article.
Computational Legal Studies
Innovation in the Legal Industry – The Future is Already Here, It is Just Not Evenly Distributed
Dan Katz discusses the difficulty facing a new era of law professionals with an eye on the future. More videos on the future of law and legal informatics are available on the ReInvent Law Channel.